To baby, or not to be ? Couple alignment in fertility intentions and union transitions in Germany

Fertility intentions are central to understanding reproductive behavior, yet most research focuses on their realization in childbirth rather than on the relational transitions that precede it. This talk examines how (mis)alignment in short-term fertility intentions shapes relationship trajectories among childless couples in Germany. Using 13 waves of dyadic data from the German Family Panel (pairfam), we apply a multistate modeling approach to simultaneously estimate transitions across key stages of the relationship life course—dating, cohabitation, marriage, dissolution, and parenthood—while accounting for union duration and gender asymmetries.

We find that couples who share positive fertility intentions are significantly more likely to institutionalize their relationships even at early union stages (i.e. dating), thus progressing more rapidly through relationship stages typically preceding parenthood. Misalignment does not uniformly signal incompatibility: it also predicts progression—particularly when the woman wants children—compared to couples who both do not.

These findings highlight that fertility intentions are not just individual preferences but operate as relational signals of future orientation and commitment—shaping not only whether, but also how quickly, couples move through relationship stages. Importantly, we show that reproductive decision-making unfolds within union dynamics well before conception, and that fertility postponement may partly reflect relationship trajectories shaped by uncertain or asymmetric intentions. Our results underscore the value of dyadic data and longitudinal approaches in understanding how intimate relationships structure the paths—and delays—toward parenthood in contemporary low-fertility contexts.

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